According to the latest statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the total accumulated state budget revenue in the first quarter of 2019 is estimated at VND 381,000 billion, equal to 27% of the estimate, up 13.2% over the same period in 2018.
In particular, domestic revenue in the first quarter reached VND 381,000 billion; in which crude oil revenue was VND 12,280 billion, down 14.3% compared to the same period in 2018; Budget revenue from import and export activities in the first quarter reached VND 80,800 billion, up 17.6% compared to the same period in 2018.
Meanwhile, the total expenditure in the first 3 months of 2019 reached 315.6 trillion VND, equaling 19.3% of the estimate, up 7.6% over the same period in 2018. Due to low spending in the first quarter of the year, The overall state budget balance has a surplus of about 66 trillion.
However, according to economic experts, this is not necessarily a good sign. By spending on development investment only reached 46.7 trillion VND; interest payment is 30.76 trillion dong, regular spending is 237.2 trillion dong, accounting for 75% of total state budget expenditure.
In fact, recurrent expenditure in the total state budget expenditure has remained high, about 70%, since 2008 up to now. In particular, spending on continuous administrative management shows that Vietnam has not achieved good results in administrative apparatus reform to reduce public spending.
Currently, total expenditures for wages in the State budget of Vietnam are high compared to other countries in the region, equivalent to middle-income countries. According to this trend, Vietnam's salary ratio by 2020 may be higher than the current rate of high-income countries.
In addition, interest payment also accounts for about 10-12% of the total state budget expenditure and is on an increasing trend, which is only interest payment, excluding the original debt. Therefore, the remaining budget for investment is mainly based on borrowing. This leads to increasing pressure on public finance.
The burden of public finance will be even greater when workers get a basic salary increase from the upcoming July 1, 2019. The base salary will be adjusted from 1.39 million VND / month to 1.49 million VND / month; In addition, the pension, social insurance allowance, and monthly allowance will be adjusted (subjects guaranteed by the state budget) and preferential subsidies for people with meritorious services to the revolution will increase with the increase in their salary. Department.
The Circular stipulates the implementation of the 2019 state budget estimation, stating : The source of implementing 2019 salary reforms in localities includes: 50% of the local budget revenue increase in 2018 compared with estimates (excluding land use levies and construction lottery) assigned by the Prime Minister; 50% increase in local budget revenues (excluding land use levies, construction lottery) 2018 estimates compared to 2017 estimates assigned by the Prime Minister; 50% increase in local budget revenue (excluding land use fee, lottery) estimate of 2019 compared to the estimate of 2018 assigned by the Prime Minister.
However, according to economic experts, in order to ensure sustainable national finance and still support economic growth, fiscal policy needs to focus on supply, which emphasizes to reduce spending. books, not increased revenue. The increase in wages, which has not done well in the streamlining of the payroll and the reduction of expenditures for the public non-business sector, will only create more pressure and difficulties for public finance. In January 2019, the Ministry of Home Affairs set a target to reduce 5,510 civil servants, and about 39,000 officials and people working in non-productive units this year. But the payroll streamlining process still depends too much on the number of retirees, and the breakthrough in payroll streamlining is unlikely.
It is worth noting that about 50% of Vietnam's domestic debt will expire in the next 3 years. This makes the Government constantly pushing investors to participate in the Government bond market. Recently, in order to orient the development of the market and restructure public debt on debt maturity and deposit interest rates, in the first quarter, the Ministry of Finance issued 69.5 trillion dong of government bonds ( Not including VND 7 trillion of debt issuance with Vietnam Social Insurance according to the resolution of the National Assembly) with an average term of 12.35 years, the average interest rate is 4.91% / year.
Referring to public debt, in October 2018, the National Assembly Finance Committee stated that the estimated debt balance in 2017 was VND 3,128 trillion; 2018 estimated to be 3,409 trillion VND. Thus, on average, each Vietnamese person can bear more than 34 million dong of public debt in 2018, an increase of nearly 3 million dong per person compared to 2017.
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